Pawlenty’s Coming Out Speech And A Lesson For 2012

The Minnesota Governor is laying the groundwork for a 2012 run with a speech before a Republican National Committee meeting in San Diego:

“I’m a Republican governor in a traditionally Democratic state,” Pawlenty will say. “Yet, we were able to cut the size of government, avoid new taxes, increase our energy independence and reform our health care system even with a divided government.” 

If Republicans crash and burn again in ‘10, the party might be willing to forgo ideological conformity (Sen. Jim DeMint) in favor of someone who could possibly win (Pawlenty).  On the other hand, if Republicans pick up seats in the House and tread water in the Senate in ‘10 they might be inclined to stick to with a hardcore conservative. These are the waters that Pawlenty must navigate.  His rhetoric at this nascent stage is similar to what we heard from Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani in ‘06 and ‘07 – “Republican in a blue state, but still able to cut taxes/spending etc.”  Unlike Romney and Giuliani who had to remake themselves in many ways before pursuing national office, Pawlenty can stick to his record without having to do philosophical gymnastics.  

I hope Pawlenty pursues a more middle-of-the-road pragmatist campaign.  My biggest fear looking at 2012 is that the GOP will smell blood in the water and think it can get away with someone on the hard right.  Even if said candidate were to lose to Obama, there is a school of thought that such crash-and-burn elections sow the seeds for future electoral success a la Goldwater in ‘64 to Reagan in ‘80.  That’s pure fantasy. 

Reagan was able to sweep to power in ‘80 because of the collapse of LBJ’s Great Society and the excesses of liberalism.  Yes, the California Governor first emerged on the national stage because of Goldwater’s campaign.  At the same time, in part because Goldwater was swamped, Republicans in the House and Senate were also routed.  As a result the supermajority Democratic Congress that entered office in 1965 was one of the most liberal in American history.  From that 89th Congress we got Medicare, Medicaid, the Voting Rights Act, the Freedom of Information Act and the Immigration and Nationality Act.  Now much of that legislation has done good things for many Americans, but it also set the stage for the fiscal catastrophe we face in coming decades.  The Voting Rights Act contains some flagrantly unconstitutional provisions.  The Immigration and Nationalization Act has done much to remake the national identity of the United States and not always in a good way.

If Goldwater in ‘64 hadn’t been such a disaster and there were enough Republicans in Washington in ‘65 to have more influence over Great Society legislation, then perhaps some of the probalems we have today would have been avoided.  We could have gotten a more fiscally responsible version of Medicare, an immigration policy that didn’t throw open America’s doors for the last forty years and a more restricted federal government.  Of course, this is probably heresy to many conservatives who consider Goldwater’s defeat a badge of honor.  At the end of the day, however, Goldwater’s ‘64 campaign maybe brought us Reagan.  It certainly brought us a social welfare system that will never go away or be cut in any meaningful way.