ConnScript Update: Former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is the new Chairman of the Republican National Committee with 91 votes.
ConnScript Update: Round 5 – Steele at 79, Dawson at 69 and Anuzis with 20 votes. Steele is only 6 votes shy of winning the RNC Chairmanship.
Anuzis, the candidate I actually preferred, has dropped out. A good portion of his support came from the blue states so I would expect that it would now gravitate towards Steele. Unless Dawson can twist enough arms to force a seventh ballot, Michael Steele is the new Chairman of the RNC.
ConnScript Update: I know nothing. It’s probably best if I stop live blogging at this point.
Blackwell has just endorsed Steele. This is surprising given that Blackwell ran as the conservative alternative to Steele. It’ll be interesting to see if Blackwell’s supporters follow his endorsement. I suspect most of them will. Steele should break 70 on the next ballot. I’m surprised Anuzis is still in this thing. Perhaps he is waiting to play kingmaker and endorse Steele to put him over the top.
ConnScript Update: Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is dropping out. Expect much of his support to swing to Katon Dawson. This would put Dawson tantalizingly close to the magic number – 85.
UPDATE: ROUND FOUR: Looks like most of the Duncanites went to Dawson (not terribly surprising). Dawson’s way up to 62, with Steele trailing slightly at 60. Anuzis improved his standing considerably, from 24 to 31, and Blackwell remains stuck at 15.
To respond to Connscript’s update, I think part of it may have been a Southern thing. But more so, I would say, it was probably a committee thing, i.e. Dawson’s a member and Steele is not. Most of Duncan’s support appears to have been institutional, therefore it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that they opted for an insider over an outsider, an agent of stability over an agent of change. Which begs the question, what about Saul Anuzis’ supporters? Are they also going to switch to Dawson because he’s a state chair like Anuzis? I would say no, because the support for Anuzis seems to be largely based on change, not so much in policy as in infrastructure/technology. I don’t think Anuzis’ camp will split cleanly in one direction, but I’d expect them to break more for Steele than for Dawson.
ConnScript Update: Well, I clearly blew that one. We’re now locked in a Dawson – Steele match. I wonder what led Duncan supporters to Dawson. Was it a Southern thing? An inside deal?
ConnScript Update: Current RNC Chairman Mike Duncan has dropped out.
Who benefits? Steele. The momentum is clearly on his side. Dawson and Anuzis might pick up a few votes, but at this point in the race there is Steele and everyone else.
UPDATE: ROUND THREE: Steele pulls ahead with 51 votes and Duncan drops to 44. Looks like Duncan is fading away. Emerging? Katon Dawson jumps from 29 to 34, likely making him the primary competitor for Steele (as predicted by Yours Truly). Anuzis stays put at 24, indicating he has stagnated, while Blackwell drops from 19 to 14. Apparently, Blackwell’s game plan is to stay in for five rounds, but why is he wasting anyone’s time? From the movement in the numbers it would appear that Blackwell and Duncan voters are lining up now with either Dawson or Steele. Probably not a uniform movement from either camp, as Blackwell supporters could be alternatively swayed by Dawson’s social conservatism or Steele’s outreach potential while Duncan supporters may have been motivated initially by loyalty and now are free to vote their preferences.
As for Round 4, look for a two-way battle to take shape between Steele and Dawson, as Duncan, Anuzis, and Blackwell lose ground and credibility.
UPDATE: ROUND TWO: Wow. Duncan and Steele are tied at 48, on the second ballot. Huge disappointment for the Duncan folks.
Little movement elsewhere. Dawson bumps up one to 29, Anuzis up two to 24, Blackwell down one to 19.
Questions: Who drops out? (I’m looking at you, Ken Blackwell.) Does the net gain among the bottom three mean a few Duncan supporters voted their heads the first round and are now voting their hearts, for good? What’s the reaction to the Steele insurgency? Will he gain on pure momentum, or will we see movement toward a Steele alternative? (If so, my guess is Katon Dawson.)
ORIGINAL POST: The first round of balloting is in, and there were some rather big surprises.
Out of 168 ballots cast (requiring a majority of 85 to win), incumbent Chair Mike Duncan received 52 votes, with former Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele coming in a close second at 46. Trailing behind them were SC Republican Chairman Katon Dawson with 28, MI Republican Chairman Saul Anuzis with 22, and former OH Secretary of State Ken Blackwell with 20.
These first round results have to be a big disappointment for the Duncan camp, and a boon for the Steele camp. Judging by Politico’s estimates last night, Duncan was expecting to fall between the high 40s and low 60s, while Steele was expected to win about 40 votes on the first ballot. Duncan barely cleared his minimum, while Steele easily exceeded expectations and nearly caught Duncan. It would certainly appear that Steele has the momentum going into the second round of voting.
What’s left to be seen, though, is whether the supporters of the other candidates are influenced by that momentum when, inevitably, switching their votes to a more viable candidate. The alternative is that they could see the Duncan-Steele face-off as a contest between conventional and moderate conservatism (whether the moderate label fits Steele or not).
Of course, it also remains to be seen whether second-tier supporters and possibly unimpressed Duncan supporters rally behind Anuzis, Blackwell, or Dawson as a Steele alternative. Don’t count those guys out. Perhaps Blackwell would be a good compromise. As an African-American, like Steele, his selection would signal a move toward expanding the GOP base. He’s also a midwesterner, thus satisfying concerns about the GOP becoming a Southern regional bloc. On the other hand, he, unlike Steele, is a darling of the social conservatives.
Anything could happen. Stay tuned for updates.
The longer Blackwell hangs around the better it is for Steele. He’s keeping a corp group of social conservatives away from Duncan and/or Dawson which is giving Steele more leverage. If we’re at a fifth ballot and Blackwell drops out, then Steele’s lead may be perceived as insurmountable. At that point it’s either get out of the way or get on board cause it’s going to happen.
I bet Anuzis starts losing some ground which is going to help Steele as well.
This makes up for my false hope in Fred Thompson.
Steele would have been my choice, so I’m pleased with this result. However, I’m concerned that the liberal media will play this is a knee-jerk attempt by the GOP to put a black guy in a prominent position, with the implication being that the GOP has “come to its senses” in light of Obama’s election and is trying to deal with its racist nature. In short, the media narrative may be that the GOP is “unpacking its invisible knapsack” by choosing Steele to chair the RNC.
On the other hand, this is probably a junkie-only story in terms of people who pay any meaningful attention to it, so media coverage likely isn’t a big deal either way.
Anyone who has seen or been around Steele knows this is not even close to an Affirmative Action pick… that story will die quickly.