Juan Pierre broke into the National League with the Colorado Rockies in 2000, impressing many with his speed and ability to hit for average. To wit: Pierre hit .310 in 200 AB’s as a rookie, a mark that many “old school” managers, scouts, etc., would consider quite impressive. However, the statistics he posted during his rookie campaign encapsulate “old school” versus “new school” hitting evaluation almost perfectly.
Amazingly, in those 200 AB’s, the only extra-base hits Pierre could tally were two doubles. Despite his great speed he could not tally a triple, and despite playing in the thin air of Coors Field in Denver, Colorado, he did not hit a home run. Thus, despite logging the traditionally-impressive .310 batting average, Pierre posted a truly atrocious .320 slugging percentage.
Another way to get an idea of how much power a batter displays is to look at a statistic called Isolated Power. By subtracting batting average from slugging percentage, Isolated Power “filters out” singles, and instead measures a hitter’s ability to generate extra-base hits. For example, let’s say Player A hits for a pedestrian batting average of .250, but hits 35 home runs over the course of a season. He might accrue a slugging percentage of .475. Player A’s Isolated Power would be .225, compared to a historical average of about .120.
Back to Juan Pierre. In his remarkable 2000 campaign, Pierre’s Isolated Power was a microscopic .010. In other words, his .310 batting average is what one would call “empty.” Pierre finished the season with an OPS+ of 57 (league-average OPS+ is always 100). As such, despite a batting average above .300, Pierre’s productivity was barely half as good as the league average! This is the most extreme example of this disparity I’ve run across for any player who logged a significant number of AB’s in a given season. While Pierre has posted better slugging numbers in subsequent seasons (his career mark is a still-bad .371), he’s never been much of a threat to pitchers. In fact, the one time that Pierre posted an OPS+ above 100, he had to hit .326 to do it! This takes me to my next point.
Pitchers know Juan Pierre isn’t likely to hurt them with doubles, triples, or home runs. In fact, he’s only hit 12 home runs in his career, or one home run for every 423 AB’s. As such, pitchers aren’t afraid to throw a pitch in the strike zone. This means Pierre very rarely is able to get on base by any means other than a hit. For his career, Pierre’s only been able to coax a walk out of a pitcher once for every 16.5 AB’s.
When a player’s on-base percentage is primarily constituted of his batting average (because he can’t draw walks), his Isolated Patience is going to be low. Isolated Patience subtracts batting average from on-base percentage to measure a hitter’s ability to get on base without getting a hit. Pierre’s Isolated Patience is low because pitchers aren’t threatened by him, and this means that in order to post a good on-base percentage, Pierre has to be extremely successful in terms of batting average.
Pierre, in my judgment, has had three seasons in which he posted a respectable on-base percentage. One of them was a season in which Pierre played at Coors Field, and the last one was in 2004. On-base percentage is considered by “new school” or “sabermetric”-minded people to be the most important offensive statistic in baseball. After all, it measures the ability of a batter to do his fundamental job: avoid making an out.
Pierre’s been a leadoff man most of his career; about 80% of his career AB’s have been from the #1 spot in the batting order. It’s particularly important for a leadoff hitter to have good on-base skills, since he’ll be “setting” the table for hitters behind him at least once per game. So, given Pierre’s poor on-base skills (never higher than .331 in the past four seasons), total lack of power, and noodle arm in the outfield, what prompted the Los Angeles Dodgers, one of baseball’s marquee franchises, to reward Pierre with a five-year, $45M contract after the 2006 season?
Grit.
Hustle.
Attitude.
Determination.
Work ethic.
Good for 200 hits a year.
He can steal a base.
“He knows how to lead off.“
Most Major League GMs and managers don’t seem to pay too much attention to statistics if the numbers don’t fit their prejudices. Leadoff man’s got a low on-base percentage? Well, he knows how to lead off. Of course, these GMs and managers have been around the game for decades, so on some level, they clearly know how to evaluate talent. However, notice that the reasons Pierre’s still considered by many around baseball to be a “big name” worthy of a big contract are all either entirely subjective, or based on objective but flawed statistics. Pierre looks like what a leadoff hitter should look like, in the eyes of people like Dodgers manager Joe Torre. That’s why he’s still written into the lineup night after night, despite more productive outfielders riding the pine in the dugout.
A couple of statistical examples from this season to wrap up my lengthy argument:
Juan Pierre – Batting Average/On-Base Average/Slugging Average: .282/.327/.319
Andre Ethier – Batting Average/On-Base Average/Slugging Average: .274/.339/.442
Ethier is objectively a much more productive player than Pierre; his slugging percentage is well over 100 points higher than Pierre’s. However, when the Dodgers had to choose which of the two to bench when Manny Ramirez arrived, they chose Ethier.
Here’s a final example of how meaningless batting average can be. In 2007, Juan Pierre and fellow Dodger Russell Martin each posted a batting average of .293. While Pierre’s OPS was a poor .685, Martin’s was a very strong .843, which is even better given that Martin is a catcher. Pierre’s stock is grounded on the fact that he posts strong batting averages, but as you can see, the one statistic that has allowed Pierre to cash in is a very flawed measure of productivity.
Excellent work, Mooseburger. I used to be a Pierre enthusiast, mainly because I heard the stories of how early he got to the park for batting practice and then the visible, impressive batting average and stolen base numbers. But the more I’ve gotten beyond that initial impression, the more I’ve come to regard him as, indeed, “Baseball’s Most Overrated Player.” I’ve thought that for a while now, and so I wholeheartedly agree.
As a Dodger fan, I have to ask you: Is there any reason Ned Colletti should keep his job? Signing Pierre to 5-year, $45 million contract is bad enough to make one question his competence. Following that up with an $18 million per year contract to Andruw Jones establishes a pattern of giving exorbitant contracts to overrated, big name players.
Also, why didn’t the Dodgers trade away one of their outfielders when they got Manny? I suppose the trade happened so close to the deadline that they may literally have run out of time.
Finally, I believe you’re getting the unfortunate opportunity to see what I saw from Joe Torre in recent years, as a Yankees fan: his utter lack of imagination. Guys like Juan Pierre have reputations, and because they have those reputations and have been given a certain role on the team, they will retain that role almost no matter what. Nothing illustrated this better during Torre’s time with the Yankees than his use of Mike Myers. Last year, Myers was the Yankees’ designated “lefty specialist.” On numerous occasions, Myers was brought in to face a single batter – often David Ortiz – and not only failed to get him out, but gave up a home run or double. However, Myers somehow had an outstanding record against righties. Rather than thinking outside of the box and shifting Myers’ role on the team to reflect his strenghts, albeit unconventional, Torre continued to use him only against lefties until Myers’ performance became unacceptable – at least in terms of his defined role – and the Yankees cut him loose.
I’m tempted to say to you that baseball’s most overrated player is managed by baseball’s most overrated manager, but I think that may be a stretch. Torre is not a terrible manager, he just falls very far short of the reputation he has. Remember, he was a very unsuccessful manager before taking over the Yankees, a team that gave him some incredible tools to work with. Fortunately, for Torre he also has great talent in LA this year, so that may carry him through. Or he may show his true colors and prove a terrible disappointment, wasting the great opportunities the Dodgers have this year and beyond.